Exhausted

Why Hillary Shouldn't Drop Out

She mathematically can't beat or even catch up with Obama. The most miraculous projections (her winning 60 percent of the vote in every remaining State) still leave her 50-75 pledged delegates behind.

The only way she can win now is by destroying Obama. She has to attack enough to convince the Superdelgates that he could not beat McCain. We've already seen some ugly tactics (but some of them may be overblown).

So, the thought goes, she should be encouraged to drop out before she damages our candidate and hands the election to the Republicans.

I admit, I've had that urge. But I realize it has come out of fear; the fear that like Kerry and Dukakis, Obama is not up for the task of the Republican smear machine.

If Clinton can sink him, it's better that we know it now.

I don't think she will be able too. I think he will emerge as a tougher, more skilled campaigner. I think he will have developed a reasonably compelling answer for every skeleton in his closet and all of those skeletons will be old news and thus the media will ignore them.

(Consider Hillary Clinton attacking Obama for a land-deal. But Whitewater is old news, and there was probably nothing there so the media ignores it. Even if Obama wanted too, it would be hard to revive it. By the time McCain gets a chance to use Clinton's attacks, they'll have faded away and be equally difficult to bring back to life).

Obama is a better debater because he had to face down Clinton 20 times. He's a better fundraiser because he faced her powerful and 'inevitable' campaign. For a lot of Democrats, I worry, the transition from the primary to the general election is like going from single A to the majors. Obama may find the opposite; that after Clinton, a dance with McCain would be like Albert Pujols feasting on triple-A pitching.

I don't like Clinton's tactics. I think it would have spoken well for her if she withdrew after her victories (allowing her to bow out honorably on a positive note), but I don't think she actually hurts the party by staying in. Hell, it might even help.

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Exhausted

June 2009

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