Exhausted

Politics

I've mentioned that the Republican candidates that make me nervous in a general election campaign are McCain and Huckabee. One of the reasons Huckabee makes me nervous is the very reason the Republican establishment is turning on him: he can run as an economic moderate and a social conservative. I think that message has an incredibly broad potential audience, but it probably would shatter the Republican establishment.

Basically, Republicans face a problem: their core beliefs are relatively unpopular. Most people do not support tax cuts to the wealthy. Most people don't want to cut entitlement programs. Most people are in some squishy middle on abortion in which some 'reasonable' regulations are okay, but nothing more, etc. Democrats tend to have a strong policy advantage in elections, but Republicans have been effective at using lies and smears to attack their character.

Still the most effective Republican campaigns also include divergences from the Republican core. Bush himself ran as a 'compassionate' conservative and signed laws providing for substantial federal funding for education and prescription drugs for seniors, and has fought for a path for citizenship for illegal immigrants. Those positions were unpopular with the base but were widely popular with the general population.

To win the general election, Republicans would need to nominate someone with some sort of similar issue upon which they have credibility. For Huckabee, it is focusing on reducing the effects of poverty on children. For McCain it is fighting for campaign finance reform. But the very reason they are dangerous general election opponents is the reason they are being shredded in the Republican primaries.

It is such an interesting campaign right now.

Comments

Guiliani worries me most in the general election. I know a lot of left-leaning people who, for some reason, say they'd vote for him.

And while they'd have to hold their nose to vote for him, I'm sure a lot of Republicans would do just that to keep Hillary out of the White House.
Guiliani seems to me like someone relatively easy to puncture. He's not all that good under pressure, sort of responds belligerently to attacks, and has a lot of stuff that is worth attacking on his resume. I think he would bleed support and be on the defensive for his entire campaign and would have almost no ability to expand his popularity.
Exhausted

June 2009

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