Based on previous history, Obama will announce his Veep candidate sometime this coming week, before the Olympics start. The Democratic Convention begins shortly after the Olympics, and Obama has ponied up the money to be an official Olympic sponsor (so his national advertising during the Olympics will be substantial). It would be the perfect time to make the announcement (I'm guessing Monday or Tuesday so as to try to get a full week of coverage).
At
mydd.com Todd Beaton makes the counterintuitive argument in favor of an experienced Washington insider. The liberal blogs have been debating the value of a 'reinforcing' selection (who would build upon strengths) or a 'traditional' selection designed to shore up weaknesses. The liberal blogs tend to think 'reinforcing' is a good idea.
Current mathematical models suggest that location doesn't matter that much - that selecting a candidate from a particular swing State is unlikely to win a state the candidate wouldn't otherwise win (
FiveThirtyEight cites
Muskie in 1968 as the only Veep candidate in the past 50 years to have done so.
Despite the media rumors that this is a close race, Obama is leading so substantially in the State-by-State polls, and the map is so favorable to him that it is most accurate to say he has a commanding lead. Part of his strategy is to dominate the air waves and suck the oxygen out of the McCain campaign. The trip abroad, which did not provide Obama a bump in the polls, was still a major victory because it thoroughly dominated media coverage for almost a week. Before the trip, McCain was hitting Obama as a flip flopper, and that charge was starting to get traction, despite being false, on the cable channels. The trip abroad
killed that meme, at least in the short term.
A lot of the Republican attacks require a sort of momentum to be effective. Part of the effectiveness of the Swift Boat attacks or the
Willie Horton ad is that they drive the narrative. The press, by debating the ads, tends to offer them free air time. They wring their hands and talk about how vicious and underhanded the attacks are - by while they do so they end up creating the environment where those attacks get repeated and are able to grow.
That's why this period is so critical for Obama - between his veep selection, the Olympics, and the Democratic national convention
he is almost certain to have about a month where the major stories are neutral to positive. McCain, of course, will continue to make his daily attacks, but they will be relegated to thirty second quips 10 minutes into the show, or five-column-inch stories placed on page A-14.
Unless Obama is perceived as blowing the VP pick.
With that in mind, I think there will be extra focus on picking someone who does not seem like they would need on the job training.
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Here are the people whose names are mentioned and how I rank them:
TOP TIERKATHLEEN SEBELIUS (GOV. KANSAS) - Reinforcing
Strengths: 70+ percent approval rating as a progressive governing in a deeply Red state. She has a good record on health care and abortion. She's smart, competent, and a surprisingly effective campaigner. Opposed Iraq early. Catholic.
Weaknesses: Her response to one of Bush's State of the Union speeches, her biggest 'prime time' moment, was a flop. She isn't well known nationally. All of the news stories about Hillary Clinton's 'supporters' being pissed about picking another woman would be a pain in the ass.
WESLEY CLARK (GEN. ARKANSAS) - Reinforcing/Traditional
Strengths: Opposed the Iraq war from the start. Particularly powerful speaker on national security, Iraq, Afghanistan. Has a strong base of support within the party. Already a national figure. Could be a highly effective attack dog.
Weaknesses: Unusually unlikely to help in any particular state. May not be an effective surrogate on the economy. Had a minor scandal earlier when he noted that having been a prisoner of war wasn't really experience that would help in the White House.
THE MIDDLE GROUPEVAN BAYH (SEN. INDIANA/GOV. INDIANA) - Traditional
Strengths: The safest of the traditional picks, he is a moderate, slightly DLCish Democrat who has a long career of popular and competent, if uninspiring, governing. He will get praise from the media, would be ready for a campaign from the start and would be unlikely to make any mistakes. Note: Democratic governor means no loss of a Senate seat.
Weaknesses: Voted for the Iraq War. Most boring, conventional pick. Doesn't really
bring much to the campaign beyond allaying fears.
JACK REED (SEN. RHODE ISLAND) - Reinforcing/Traditional
Strengths/weaknesses: Basically has the same as Wesley Clark, but was also one of the most liberal votes in the Senate. He voted against the Iraq War.
TIM KAINE (GOV. VIRGINIA) - Reinforcing
Strengths: Early support, opposition to the Iraq War, Catholic (and effective talking about religion on the campaign trail).
Weaknesses: Not a great governor.
JOE BIDEN (SEN. DELAWARE) - Unclear
Strengths: I came around late on Biden, whose weaknesses, are pretty profound. BUT... he's one of the most effective attack dogs in the Democratic Party. In one line ("There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun, and a verb and 9/11") Biden essentially destroyed the campaign of Rudy Guiliani, who went from front-runner to joke. He is also extremely knowledgeable about the issues, both in terms of foreign policy and domestically. His propensity for only marginally constrained 'straight talk' contrasts well with McCain.
Weaknesses: He has been a flack for credit card companies, and was the primary mover behind the terrible bankruptcy reform bill. He voted for the Iraq war. He can put his foot in his mouth so deep it comes out his ass. He has a long history of votes that could become a weakness.
BILL RICHARDSON (GOV. NEW MEXICO, AMBASSADOR TO THE UN, ENERGY SECRETARY)
Strengths: He has the perfect resume. He has extraordinary experience dealing with foreign leaders and is a strong diplomat. His experience as Energy Secretary could make him effective on another key topic. Charismatic. Latino.
Weaknesses: Probably did not keep his dick in his pants. Has a tendency to make crazy, nonsensical panders (God wants Iowa to have the first in the nation primary). Caveat: if he did keep his dick in his pants, he'd move up a tier.
DISASTROUS PICKSHILLARY CLINTON (SEN. NY) - Traditional)
Strengths: Deep support in Democratic Party. Relentless campaigner. Might be most effective attack-dog in the party.
Weaknesses: Probably has the highest negatives of anyone in politics, she would unite and energize the Republican party. Her attacks against Obama would be fodder for campaign commercials.
CHRIS DODD (SEN. CONNECTICUT) - Reinforcing
Strengths: Reasonably progressive record in the Senate. Effective, proven campaigner. He has a strong base of support in the Democratic Party.
Weaknesses: Countrywide scandal disqualifies him. He is probably only still on the list as a favor to someone.
ED RENDELL (GOV. PENNSYLVANIA) - Traditional
Strengths: Former DLC chair could probably raise a lot of money from traditional sources. Has an actual party machine which might be able to deliver votes in his state. He, like Biden, can be an effective straight talking attack dog.
Weaknesses: So deeply an inside the party hack, he would mute all of Obama's criticisms of Washington. Like Biden, that straight talking means he is almost never "on message" and will put his foot in his mouth. Almost impossibly undisciplined.
SAM NUNN (FORMER SEN. GEORGIA) - Traditional
Strengths: Foreign policy gravitas up the wazoo. Would reassure a lot of conservative Democrats. His work on nuclear nonproliferation is substantive, and reinforcing. Favorite Veep choice of Jimmy Carter.
Weaknesses: Barely a Democrat. The DLC was
founded to elect him President. Bad (not just bad... tragically bad and borderline bigoted) history on gender issues and gay rights.
CHUCK HAGEL (REPUBLICAN SEN. NEBRASKA)
Strength: Criticized Iraq War (but voted for it). Foreign policy gravitas.
Weaknesses: Not a Democrat. Unlikely to agree with Obama on anything except war.